It’s early, but forecasts suggest 2022 hurricane season may be above average — again
With two months to go until the start of hurricane season, early forecasts from academic and for-profit organizations suggest another above-average season could be in store.
Colorado State University’s forecast, released Thursday, predicts the Atlantic basin could see 19 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which could be major Category 3, 4 or 5 whoppers.
If those numbers hold, it would put the upcoming storm season on par with 2021’s 21 named storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Although last year was also above-average, it didn’t quite match the ferocity of the 2020 season, which saw 30 named storms, 14 of which were hurricanes and seven of which were major storms.
The brief foray into Greek letters that year (after the National Hurricane Center ran out of storm names) won’t be repeated. The World Meteorological Organization declared it “a distraction.” From now on, the NHC will draw from a list of backup names if needed.
The CSU forecast predicts another above-average season thanks to higher than normal sea surface temperatures, specifically in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. In previous years those spots have been hotter than normal in March, there’s been an earlier and more active hurricane season.
Another factor is an atmospheric pattern that warms or cools water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as La Niña and El Niño. During an El Niño, the Atlantic hurricane season is generally less active, and vice versa with La Niña. This year, forecasters at CSU said it looks like the La Niña conditions from the last few years may lessen and slip into a neutral between the two extremes.
Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at CSU and lead author on the forecast, said that whether a weak La Niña remains or we drop into a neutral version of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, it’s likely that an above-average season is still in store.
“If we have cool neutral ENSO conditions and a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic that should also reduce wind shear in a way comparable to a full-blown La Nina with a tropical Atlantic that has water temperatures near normal,” he wrote in an email.
Another early hurricane season prediction from for-profit forecaster Accuweather called for a similar season — 16 to 20 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, three to four of which could be major hurricanes. The Accuweather forecast also calls for a weak La Niña that could fade into a neutral status over the summer.
Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said some of those hotter than normal patches of water, like the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida, could be warm enough to support early storms.
“There is sufficient warm water to support early season development over the southern and southeast Gulf of Mexico southward into the northern Caribbean. This is an area that often brings pre-season and early-season development. We also see anomalously warm water just east and southeast of Florida, again warmer enough to support pre and early season development,” he wrote in an email.
But although waters are also abnormally warm off the east coast of the U.S., Kottlowski said it’s not quite hot enough to support early storm development.
“But given what saw last year that could change quickly during the next few weeks. Usually, we don’t start to see the real very warm water until mid-summer,” he said.
June 1 is the official start of hurricane season, but for the second year, the NHC plans to start issuing daily updates two weeks early, a nod to the nearly decade-long trend of named storms forming earlier than June. Experts attribute that to better satellite technology that allows scientists to see more “junk storms,” but some research suggests that earlier storms could also be a product of climate change warming the sea and air.
The gold standard of hurricane season forecasts is NOAA’s May forecast, which gets upgraded in August near the peak of the 6-month hurricane season. Earlier predictions are generally less accurate.
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April,” the CSU report reads. “We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.”
2022 Storm Names:
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Martin
Nicole
Owen
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
This story was originally published April 7, 2022 at 5:17 PM with the headline "It’s early, but forecasts suggest 2022 hurricane season may be above average — again."
