Severe Weather Blog

'High' chance of tropical storm forming Monday in Gulf of Mexico; Florida not at risk

A broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane Monday afternoon or evening as it approaches the Texas coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter airplane investigated the system Monday but "found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the system as a tropical cyclone," the Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. EDT. "However, thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

Maximum winds were estimated to be near 45 mph.

The chance of the system becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours was listed at 90 percent, according to the Hurricane Center.

Regardless of development, the Hurricane Center said tropical storm conditions were possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana.

If the system develops into a tropical storm or hurricane, it would be named Bill.