Severe Weather Blog

Disturbance near Mexico may develop into hurricane, head toward Florida

There is a 50-50 chance that a disturbance off the coast Mexico will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. Possible paths for the system include Florida.

"Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually becoming better defined." the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. EDT. "This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week."

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to investigate the system on Tuesday, if needed, according to the Hurricane Center.

"Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system," the Hurricane Center said.

There is a 50 percent chance of formation into a tropical storm or hurricane within the next 48 hours; and a 60 percent chance within the next five days.

According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Warm sea surface waters and light winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere could spur development during the latter part of this week from near the Yucatan Peninsula to western Cuba."

Winds aloft are much stronger and would likely hinder development if the system was to wander farther north over the Gulf of Mexico, according to

"While a track toward Cuba, the Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula is possible later this week and into the weekend, it is too early to say with confidence where the system will go since it has not formed yet," said.

Indications are that a batch of drenching rain and locally gusty thunderstorms will shift from southeastern Mexico to Cuba and part of the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas late this weak and into the weekend, regardless of weather or not the system becomes a new tropical depression, storm or hurricane.