MANATEE -- The tropics so far this season have been quiet and Tropical Storm Danny likely won't change that fact, according to Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker.
All named storms of the season have been relatively weak and disorganized tropical storms. None of the
previous named storms this season even had a chance of developing further.
Well, Danny may.
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During Wednesday morning, a lot of dry air was wrapped into the circulation, which disrupted the convection around Danny's center. That dry air for the next two to three days is the only inhibiting factor toward development.
If Danny can fight the dry air, it may become a hurricane before reaching the islands of the Eastern Caribbean.
Danny is following a typical track for a storm in that part of the Atlantic Basin. It is heading west-northwest, and should for the next four to five days. After that, the forecast track and intensity become a bit of a challenge.
The atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean are not favorable for further development. Some reliable models indicate the very hostile upper air conditions will remain in place while Danny approaches. If so, Danny could just fizzle out.
There is an area of less hostility to the north of the easternmost islands of the Caribbean. If Danny can get there, it may maintain its intensity and even strengthen.
Here is the good news: Either scenario means a likely miss of Florida or even the United States. The weaker scenario would have it benignly move through the Caribbean, likely as an open wave by the middle of next week. A stronger Danny would likely turn north well east of the Bahamas and eventually move out to sea.
Since Danny is continually evolving as are the upper air conditions around the storm changes to the forecast thinking may take place.
Tropical Storm Danny could even become a hurricane by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Danny continues to move west over the Atlantic and is forecast to continue gaining strength through Friday. However, it has been moving westward slowly at 12 mph, according to an 5 p.m. advisory on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds in the tropical storm are at 50 mph. There are still no watches or warnings.
"There is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification during the next few days," the NHC said. There is a possibility that dry air associated with a Saharan air layer following the storm to the north could disrupt the system, according to scientists.