Regardless whether the tropical wave that is approaching South Florida manages to become organized, local forecasters are predicting some wet weather late Sunday and even more rain at the start of the work week.
The weather on Sunday in Manatee County will resemble Saturday’s conditions, according to Bay News 9 meteorologist Diane Kacmarik. Rain chances are 50 percent.
“There will be showers and storms that move quickly from the east and then into the Gulf,” Kacmarik said. “The timing will be afternoon to early evening.”
Sunday’s high is expected to be 92 degrees, a little shy of Saturday’s temperature of 95 recorded at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.
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No matter what happens with the tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean, Kacmarik predicts a 70 percent of rain for Monday and Tuesday. Monday’s storms are expected to be in the afternoon and evening, while the rain could get started earlier on Tuesday, she said.
“There are still no signs of organization,” Kacmarik said. “But our chances will be high for rain.”
The forecast for Wednesday and beyond will depend on what happens with the tropical wave, she said.
The messy storm, located between the north coast of Cuba and Andros Island on Saturday, was packing wet, gusty winds. National Hurricane Center forecasters said the system remained disorganized with high wind shear expected to smother any intensification over the next day as it crawls across the Florida Straits at about 10 mph.
As it passes over the Keys, local meteorologists say the islands will likely see winds weaker than Saturday, when gusts reached 40 mph at Duck Key.
“The more saturated the atmosphere, the less chance of winds outside” the center of the storm’s energy, said National Weather Service Key West senior meteorologist Alan Albanese. “There are less chance of gusts.”
Over the course of the day, Albanese said conditions should be typical for the time of year: off and on showers.
“This is not something out of the ordinary,” he said. “It’s the wet season.”
The storm still has a chance of powering up as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. But odds remain low, with just a 30 percent chance of a tropical storm in two days and a 40 percent chance in five days. A Saturday hurricane hunter flight was canceled.
The Miami Herald contributed to this report.