It’s a dozen days from Election Day 2016. Here’s a snapshot of how close the vote looks in Florida based on overnight county-by-county turnout reports filed with the state Thursday morning.
Nearly 2.5 million people have voted or nearly 20 percent of all Florida voters based on the voter roll as of Sept. 30. Republicans maintain a slim overall advantage in combined mail and in-person early votes cast, with 41 percent to 40.5 percent for Democrats and 16 percent for voters of no party.
The GOP holds an advantage in mail ballots, but it’s narrower than in previous cycles, and Democrats lead in early voting.
More Democrats than Republicans have received mail ballots, but a higher share of Republicans have returned them (53 percent) than have Democrats (49 percent).
Through Wednesday, more people in Miami-Dade have voted than anywhere else: 238,888, or 17.8 percent of the county electorate, based on the Sept. 30 registration numbers.
If this pace continues, Miami-Dade turnout would match or exceed the state as a whole. That would be an anomaly and a major advantage for Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.
Just up the road, a possible cause for concern for Democrats is that turnout so far in overwhelmingly-Democratic Broward is sluggish, at 16.5 percent.