MANATEE — It’s another year behind us, as hurricane season officially ends today.
Oh, we had a few scares, but nothing much in the way of serious storms during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts traditionally from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“It’s another one behind us,” said Paul Morrison, disaster chairman for the Manatee County Chapter of the American Red Cross.
“I think we’re relieved we didn’t have any storms or damage this year; it does increase our challenge to remind the public to prepare for potential disasters.”
He said based on recent information from the National Weather Service, the effect of the weather pattern called El Niño will result in a high percentage of tornadoes and heavy storms during the winter.
“We won’t have hurricanes but tornadoes can do as much or more damage than hurricanes,” he said. “So we continue to prepare, ready to respond should there be a need for any type of disaster.”
The average six-month hurricane season in the Atlantic basin produces 10 named storms and six hurricanes, two of them major. This year’s total: nine named storms produced and only three hurricanes, with Bill and Fred both reaching major Category Three-plus strength of 111-mph winds or higher.
Experts see this year’s quieter-than-normal hurricane season as a fortunate break owed largely to El Niño.
“Unless we have a special event like El Niño, we still are in a period where we are going to have active seasons,” said James Franklin, chief of hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
If that’s not enough to dull the relief of dodging another tropical bullet, a new study coauthored by a University of Miami scientist suggests climate change may sap the strength when El Niños form in the future — at least some of the time. An El Niño occurs periodically when ocean temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That creates an atmospheric ripple effect reaching around the globe in the form of strong upper level wind shear that can weaken and sometimes shred tropical cyclones as they move across the Atlantic Ocean.
Shear took its toll on virtually every storm this year, from Ana to Ida.
Ben Kirtman, a professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said climate data indicates that El Niño may be forming more frequently in the central Pacific, a 4,000-mile move to the west that could rob its “protective shield’’ of power.
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