You knew the tropics wouldn’t stay quiet forever.
Ana, the first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, formed Saturday morning, while a strengthening depression just behind it in the Africa-to-America track turned into Tropical Storm Bill in the afternoon.
South Florida sits in the middle of the National Hurricane Center’s initial forecast tracks for Ana and Bill, but with both systems more than 2,000 miles and five or more days away, they could go anywhere from Cuba to South Carolina.
“We want people to watch the tropics but we don’t want them to push the panic button,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.
In Manatee County, emergency operations personnel were watching the new storms and worried that very warm Gulf of Mexico waters might foster a dangerous storm, said Capt. Larry Leinhauser, public information officer for Manatee County Public Safety.
“Our Gulf temp right now is 98 degrees, which is ridiculous. That doesn’t bode well for us,” Leinhauser said Saturday night.
The storms are “a long way (away). We’re not going to do anything at this point. We’re going to simply observe and see what it does. It’s pretty much a watch and see, but the same thing we always preach is please be prepared,” he said.
With the tropics now actively producing storms, the American Red Cross held a hurricane shelter drill Saturday at Tampa Middleton High School for 80 Tampa Bay Chapter staff and volunteers. The drill reviewed shelter procedures.
Of the two storms, forecasters believe Bill appeared to have the better shot of becoming a hurricane.
“Bill already has better structure in its development phase than Ana ever did,” Feltgen said.
The Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. advisory showed Bill moving westward at 16 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. Forecasters expected it to continue strengthening.
By Thursday, when it is expected to near Puerto Rico on its current track, it is forecast to be a hurricane, possibly reaching Category 3 power with winds topping 111 mph.
Tropical Storm Ana, which formed after a weak depression regenerated, was moving westward at 17 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. Its movement late Saturday prompted forecasters to issue a tropical storm watch for the Leeward Islands, though the storm was more than 800 miles away.
The government of the British Virgin Islands issued a tropical storm watch for the British Virgin Islands, including Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla. Also, a tropical storm watch was issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch remained in effect for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.
Ana was encountering some upper level winds and pockets of dry air that could sap its strength.
It was forecast to remain a tropical storm through Thursday, when it could be near the coast of Florida, but forecasters weren’t ruling out that it could become a hurricane as well.
Feltgen cautioned that tracks five days out or more have broad margins of error and the storm could shift north or south by hundreds of miles. He also stressed that meteorologists still struggle with accurately predicting long-range storm intensity and that both systems could eventually prove considerably weaker or stronger than current forecasts.
Leinhauser said he was more concerned about Bill than Ana.
“We think the first one is going to dissipate. The second one could be something to consider as it develops throughout the week,” he said.
Bradenton Herald staff writer Beth Burger contributed to this report.
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