Local market shows recovery

By MELISSA FOLLOWELL

mfollowell@bradenton.com

BRADENTON --

The Manatee-Sarasota market is on its way to recovery, but don't expect a miracle overnight, a real-estate economist told Wagner Realty agents Monday.

"One of the things I clearly see in these markets is the bleeding has stopped," John Tuccillo said at an event for the company's top performers.

Officers of Wagner Realty and other companies say they have noticed an increase in traffic at open houses and office walk-ins in recent months. Wagner President David Eckel said he sees improved business in the near future.

"I believe we've reached the bottom," Eckel said.

People's desire to own houses has not diminished and the ability to buy houses as a result of the subprime mortgage meltdown is less of an issue than the economy as a whole, said Tuccillo.

When the stock market crashed, many investors turned to real estate as their chosen investment market, but when the real estate market came to a screeching halt in 2005 after 18 months of excessive growth, nothing stepped up to take its place, he said.

"We need some other sector to replace real estate," he said.

Climbing to recovery is a process and the local market has taken the first of three steps in the right direction, he said.

A former economist for the National Association of Realtors, Tuccillo subscribes to the same belief that local agents have been preaching since the market slowed. A lower number of new listings is the first step because "it means sellers are beginning to get it," according to Tuccillo.

When a house stays on the market fewer days, and when the listing price gets closer to the selling price, a market is moving toward a recovery.

"When sales prices goes up, buyers are back with a vengeance," Tuccillo said.

While Manatee-Sarasota may be on the way to recovery, others may face harder times for a bit longer.

"We don't have a national housing market, we have thousands of local markets," Tuccillo said.

This year is already shaping up to be better than last year for local agents but a return to a normal, healthy market may not occur until into 2009 or 2010. In the long run, Tuccillo sees the real estate slump becoming no more than a blip in an overall positive market trend.

"We've suffered a break in a positive, long-term trend and that break is going to be repaired," Tuccillo said.

Considering the long period of time in which the area experienced growth, the recovery time is relatively short, Tuccillo said.

He made the comments to more than 100 Wagner Realty agents during their 2007 awards gala. Almost 60 Realtors took home awards for selling more than $1 million worth of real estate last year despite the slower market.

Three agents sold more than $10 million.

"The people that treat real estate as a profession are working hard and doing well," said Wagner Realty Vice President Polly Gaar.

Real estate expert says housing sector correcting itself