Tropical Storm Erika formed Tuesday off the Leeward Islands on a path that could put it somewhere near the Bahamas by Sunday.
From there, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said, the path was uncertain and could depend on how strong the system becomes.
Some computer models took a more powerful Erika, possibly at hurricane strength, more to the northwest and well off the Florida coast. A weaker storm might continue meandering west, potentially putting South Florida or the rest of the state in the "cone.''
The center expected Erika to gain strength, with a decent chance of becoming a hurricane by Thursday but then likely weakening as it encounters stronger wind shear.
At 8 p.m., the center plotted Erika about 390 miles east of the Leeward Islands and some 1700 miles from Miami with maximum winds at 50 mph. The storm was drifting more or less in place but forecasters expected it to begin moving west-northwest at about 9 mph.
Tropical storm watches were posted for many of the northern Leewards, but on its projected track, Erika's core was expected to skirt north of them and possibly spare Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands the worst winds as well.
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