The unfortunate truth about America’s problems with Iran is this: We’re in deep trouble. There is no obvious road to successful negotiations and a peaceful solution if Iran insists on developing nuclear weapons.
That is true regardless of how the current Iranian crisis plays out.
But that crisis is only one aspect of the cauldron that Barack Obama has inherited in the Middle East.
n Obama’s chances of restarting a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians are virtually nil.
n At the moment there is no end in sight to our involvement in Afghanistan.
n And it is by no means certain that Obama will be able to withdraw from Iraq on the schedule he has promised.
Nevertheless, Iran may be the most dangerous problem. It is exacerbated by the fact that the United States has meddled too deeply and too long in the Persian Gulf area to be accepted as a fair-minded negotiating partner.
From the Iranian point of view, the United States can’t be trusted. Over the years we have toppled their government and installed a puppet of our own (1953); sided with their enemy in the Iran-Iraq war (1980s), and labeled them as part of an “axis of evil” (2001).
Even more important, Iran holds the high cards in any confrontation.
It is in a stronger strategic position in the Persian Gulf because it can easily disrupt oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, the oil lifeline of the industrial world.
It is in a stronger negotiating position because we have little to offer except threats and we probably can’t back them up. That is because we’re already tied up in two wars in the Middle East.
One of those wars, in Iraq, continues to be rather dicey. The other, in Afghanistan, we’re losing.
In other words, we have few realistic options unless we want to go to war.
If you’re looking for a negotiated solution, don’t hold your breath. At the moment, there is no basis for a negotiated solution.
That is because President Obama is demanding that Iran refrain from building even a single nuclear weapon when we have several thousands of them — currently about 3,800.
Our position is: We can have nuclear weapons, you can’t. It’s hard to imagine that Iran, regardless of who is in power, will buy that package.
But let’s get down to the real problem. The problem is not that Iran might attack the United States. It does not have the weapons to do that.
The question is whether Iran might attack Israel. It does have long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel.
Thus the threat that Iran might develop nuclear weapons could put the very survival of Israel in question.
Wild statements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have dramatized that issue. Ahmadinejad has called the holocaust a “myth” and questioned the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state.
He has denied reports that he has advocated that Israel be “wiped off the map,” but has predicted that Israel will not survive.
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