Florida political arms race revealed in 'small' election

Tribune Washington BureauMarch 10, 2014 

CLEARWATER -- The two major political parties look at off-cycle congressional elections the way great powers eye wars in small lands -- as a chance to test weapons and tactics they'll soon deploy elsewhere.

That's why many of the ads running on television here -- for a race to fill a congressional vacancy representing a swath of Florida's Gulf Coast -- likely will sound familiar soon to voters in competitive districts nationwide.

"Cut spending, stop Obamacare," proclaim the spots supporting Republican David Jolly.

"I'll bring Republicans and Democrats together," Democrat Alex Sink promises in her ads, while simultaneously accusing Jolly of endangering Social Security, Medicare and abortion rights.

The ads illustrate the two parties' contrasting strategies. But they also reflect a trend toward homogenization of campaigns as national political parties and outside groups increasingly dominate competitive races.

The two parties' congressional campaign committees, along with allied super-PACs, already have spent at least $8.6 million, mostly on television and radio ads here, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, briefly making this the country's hottest political territory. Hundreds of thousands

have been poured into robocalls and direct mail. Overall spending on the race will top $12 million, disclosure reports indicate.

Outside groups have outspent the two candidates on TV by roughly 3-to-1, according to a recent compilation of disclosure reports by The Tampa Bay Times, as they've blanketed Florida's largest media market to reach the relative handful of voters who live in the 13th congressional district and will vote in an offseason election.

Prominent local issues -- including a huge increase in federal flood insurance rates that both sides say is a top concern of area voters -- have had little role in the TV ad wars focused on national themes.

For Republicans, the strategy aims at motivating core conservative voters -- a sharp reversal from last year's vow to try to broaden the party's appeal. They've kept a singular focus on President Barack Obama's health care law, which Jolly has attacked in nearly all his ads and public appearances.

Democrats, who need to make up for the typically low turnout of young and minority voters in midterm elections, hope to attract independents and Republican moderates by playing on the perceived hyper-partisanship of the House GOP.

The district, which covers miles of beaches and suburban sprawl on the peninsula between Tampa Bay and the Gulf, provides an attractive testing ground. Its electorate has a nearly even division among Democrats, Republicans and independents -- a balance rarely found anymore in congressional districts.

The voters bear little resemblance to the Obama-era Democratic coalition of young people and minorities. Instead, the population is heavy on middle-class retirees from the Midwest. Its demographics skew white and old, even by Florida standards. Such older, moderate whites, however, are the type of voters who could decide many closely fought contests this year.

Democrats started this contest with high hopes. When Republican Rep. C.W. "Bill" Young, who had represented the area in Congress for 40 years, died in October, the government shutdown had pushed GOP standing to a nadir. In Sink, who moved into the district from the other side of Tampa Bay, Democrats had a well-known name -- a former bank executive who had served as the state's elected chief financial officer and then narrowly lost a race for governor in 2010.

Although prone to gaffes on the stump, Sink has proven popular over the years with the area's voters. Her profile as a self-proclaimed "moderate, fiscally conservative Democrat" fits the district politically. She also had a large network of donors and quickly built up a significant financial advantage.

Jolly, a former aide to Young, first had to fight through an expensive primary. He also carries the burden of having passed through Washington's revolving door. Democratic ad makers have given him a new first name in their spots, referring constantly to "Lobbyist David Jolly."

Nonetheless, the health care law's problems and the district's even partisan divide have kept the contest close. By the time absentee balloting began on Feb. 7, officials in both parties were describing the race as too close to predict. Complicating matters further, a Libertarian candidate, Lucas Overby, who has been included in candidate debates, could siphon votes from both sides.

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