MIAMI More South Florida schools would likely get F’s from the state under a new grading formula up for consideration by the state Board of Education next week.

New projections released Tuesday by state education officials indicate the number of failing schools in Miami-Dade could climb to 50, from the current five. Broward’s F schools could spike to 27, from five.

The projections along with many provisions of the new grading formula are drawing criticism from school superintendents, who say some of the proposed changes go too far.

“We support increased standards and accountability measures,” Miami-Dade Superintendent Alberto Carvalho said. “But that needs to be considered side by side with the possibility of unintended consequences consequences that could negatively impact children and the communities in which they live.”

State education officials cautioned against reading too much into the projections. They said the figures were not “strong estimates” and were only intended to “illustrate the potential impact of the proposed rule changes.”

“Don’t take these as gospel. They’re simulations only,” said Jane Fletcher, director of the DOE office of accountability and policy research.

The change in school grades is the second part of Florida’s attempt to ensure it has “the most rigorous accountability system” in the country, Manatee County Schools Superinten

dent Tim McGonegal said.

The first phase, passed in December, was changing the way FCAT scores are computed. The second change, to be considered next week, is increasing the standards for students to achieve passing grades. He described the increased standards as “the downside” of the waiver Florida received from federal No Child Left Behind standards.

“We all want higher accountability,” McGonegal said. “But I’m not sure it sends the right message for a student who has diagnosed as Level 3 (a passing grade) to now be designated as remedial.”

One solution, McGonegal said, would be for the state to allow one more year for the changes to take effect. That way, the state department will have an opportunity to communicate more clearly with parents and local Chambers of Commerce so they understand the full extent of FCAT changes.

Fletcher said she expects the letter-grade results will be different once there are two years of student scores on the FCAT 2.0, which debuted in 2011. Also, students generally perform better on an exam in its second year.

The state of Florida has awarded a letter grade to each of its public schools for more than a decade. The grade for elementary and middle schools is based largely on student performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Tests, and includes a measure for improvement. High school grades also take into account graduation rates, college readiness and the number of students earning industry certification.

Overall, the state has tested 18 changes. Among them:

n Raising the bar on FCAT 2.0 scores, making it harder to pass the more rigorous exam.

n Including test scores for students with disabilities and those learning English in the calculation for the school grade. Fletcher said that will help “provide focus to those students to make sure schools help them improve just like any other student.”

n Factoring in Florida’s end-of-course exams, which are being phased in for middle and high school students.

n Giving more weight to students who improve to high-passing grades on the state exam.

n Crediting middle schools for students who take and perform well on high school end-of-course exams.

n Giving an automatic F to schools that don’t have at least 25 percent of students reading at grade level.

The state Board of Education will consider the proposal Tuesday in Tallahassee.

John Padget, a state board member and former superintendent of Monroe County Schools, said he supports the new formula for all schools elementary, middle and senior high.

“Under the existing system, it was too easy for an elementary school to get an A or B. The new grading system will send early performance signals so that taxpayers and parents will have a single, accurate measurement tool to evaluate their neighborhood school,” Padget said in an email.

Padget said he believes the new system will give clearer expectations to students, parents, teachers and administrators at all grade levels.

State Board of Education Vice Chairman Roberto Martinez, however, said the superintendents’ concerns have merit and deserve consideration.

“I think we all want to raise the standards,” Martinez said.

“I just want to make sure that our policy makes sense and is not counterproductive. In a letter sent late Tuesday to the education commissioner, the Florida Association of District School Superintendents analyzed the proposed changes and offered alternatives.

“We have supported these reforms even though they are likely to result in lower school grades and have a negative effect on the perceptions of public education; however some of the department’s proposed changes to the school grading rule go too far and are not timely,” wrote Orange County Superintendent Ronald Blocker, the group’s president.

The superintendents from large urban districts offered similar suggestions.

Among other things, they took issue with the proposal to include test scores from special education students in the school grade calculation.

“It is unreasonable and inappropriate to expect that all exceptional students, regardless of the degree of disability, should meet the same definition of proficiency as their nondisabled grade-level peers,” they wrote.

Instead, the superintendents suggested including only a measure for improvement.

Had the new formula been in place this year, Broward would have had more than 50 schools classified as D or F. In Miami-Dade, that figure would have skyrocketed to 109.

The sting would be particularly painful in Miami-Dade’s urban core, where many schools have made steady improvement.

Miami Northwestern Senior High, for example, raised its state-issued grade to a B last year. Miami Jackson raised its grade to an A from a D. But under the new formula, Northwestern and Jackson along with Miami Norland, Miami Edison, Miami Central, Miami Carol City and Booker T. Washington senior high schools would be considered failing. “That forecast is really devastating,” said Wallace Aristide, principal at Miami Northwestern.

“It would have a very negative effect of what we’re trying do.”